Routes Gain Capacity

Rail freight traffic between Russia and China continues to grow. Experts expect the positive trend to persist and Russian Railways to reach its targets by the end of the year.

In January–August 2026, freight traffic between Russia and China on the Russian Railways network rose by 5.4% year on year to 130.2 million tons. Container traffic grew by 12.8% to 2.4 million TEU.

Over the eight months, 113.5 million tons of cargo were shipped to China, 3.7% more than a year earlier. Coal accounts for the bulk of this traffic at 71.7 million tons (up 6.1%). Shipments of oil cargo are also growing, by 4.3% to 8.8 million tons, and fertilizers by 8.4% to 4.1 million tons.

Igor Smirnov, Director for Freight Transport and Logistics at the Center for Infrastructure Economics, believes that the structure of exports to China will gradually shift toward higher-margin cargo. At the same time, in his estimation, coal will remain the core commodity group for a long time to come, while fertilizers look like one of the most promising segments.

Imports from China to Russia are growing faster than exports. In January–August, 16.7 million tons were delivered from China to Russia, 18.3% more than last year. Shipments of automobiles and components rose particularly sharply, by 55.6% to 1.5 million tons. Industrial goods totaled 2.4 million tons (up 23.3%) and chemicals 3.4 million tons (up 17.4%).

According to Dmitry Baranov, a leading expert at Finam Management, growth is being driven by the reorientation of foreign trade toward Asian markets, the development of the Eastern Operating Domain and rising imports of Chinese products. “The main contributors to growth are accelerated imports of Chinese industrial and consumer goods, the containerization of freight flows and continued strong demand for Russian raw materials,” the expert notes.

Over the eight months, 92 million tons of cargo were carried via ports in traffic with China (up 9% year on year), and 38.2 million tons via border crossings (down 2.6%). Among land checkpoints, Zabaikalsk is the leader, with 16 million tons passing through it in both directions (+5.2%). Container traffic here grew by 27.6% to 414,000 TEU. Among port stations, the largest volumes were handled by Vanino, at 18.9 million tons (up 21.9%), and Nakhodka-Vostochnaya, at 18.2 million tons (up 36.2%).

Experts expect freight traffic to keep growing in the fall and through the end of 2026, although the pace may slow somewhat from the summer highs. “Growth drivers in the second half of 2026 could include shipments of consumer goods, chemical products, ore, automobiles and components from China; container traffic in both directions and non-coal exports from Russia may also increase,” says Dmitry Baranov.

According to Igor Smirnov, barring new shocks, the accumulated base and strong growth over the first eight months make it realistic for Russian Railways to reach its target of 190 million tons for the year.

Sergei Volkov