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Eurasian logistics market update. March 2026

The last two weeks at a glance
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04/04/2026

China-Europe logistics market

Demand outlook

  • At the China Development Forum (March 22–23), Premier Li Qiang announced China’s intention to import more high-quality goods to balance trade following the record surplus of 2025 [Reuters]. As part of this strategy, tariffs have already been reduced since January 1, 2026 on 935 product items across three categories: high-tech components for manufacturing, components for green energy and high-tech medical products [GOV.CN]. This creates conditions for growth in trade flows from Europe to China.

    Given the volatility of supply chains, shippers are actively switching to alternative solutions [    JOC]. CEVA Logistics notes an increase in the total volume of rail and road freight between Asia and Europe of approximately 15% YoY. DHL is recording «noticeable growth» in requests for road and rail solutions on the Asia-Europe route.

    • In January-February, China-Europe-China rail container volume increased by 25% YoY. Growth was driven by the Central Eurasian Corridor (32% YoY), while dynamics on other routes were mixed. The Middle Corridor, for instance, saw a 4% YoY decline against a high of the previous year. In February, volume across all routes increased by 1% compared to January.

  • Demand for Asia-Europe sea freight is recovering, but growth rates are modest. European importers are in no hurry to replenish inventories, which is restraining the growth of shipments from China. 26.03.2026_Slide0EN.png

Freight rate trends

  • The average cost of China—Europe rail freight for shipments in April is ~$7 100/FEU (SOC). Since the beginning of the year, the rail rates have increased by approximately 20%. By origin, rates range from ~$6 800/FEU (Chongqing) to ~$7 900/FEU (Shenzhen). Container lease rates have also increased to around $1 200.

  • WCI Shanghai—Rotterdam, as of 19.03.2026, rose to $2 478/FEU (+17% MoM, +1% YoY) [Drewry].

    UPDATE: As of the evening of March 26, 2026, the latest WCI Shanghai-Rotterdam reading has risen by 3% WoW — up to $2 552/FEU.

    WCI Shanghai—Genoa fell to $3 108/FEU. According to Linerlytica, load factors on key routes are currently insufficient to support significant rate increases. Carriers continue to assess the market and persist in their efforts to establish new price thresholds. According to GeekYum, average quoted rates for the China—Northern Europe route for the first half of April are at $3 200/FEU, with a wide spread depending on the carrier: ranging from $2 700/FEU to $3 700/FEU.

  • Futures traders expect China—Northern Europe ocean freight rates to rise to $3 400/FEU by the end of July 2026. 26.03.2026_Slide1EN.png

Other trends

  • On the morning of March 25, 2026, Brent futures fell below $100/barrel (+33% since the escalation in the Middle East) amid reports of US diplomatic efforts to end the war with Iran [Trading Economics]. Very low sulfur fuel oil (VLSFO) in Singapore dropped to ~$900/ton (+72%) [Ship&Bunker]. Airlines have sharply increased fuel surcharges and moved to weekly pricing reviews [JOC]. Rising costs are translating into higher ocean and air freight rates.

  • Due to the closure of airspace over the Middle East, approximately 90% of regional air hub capacity has been removed [JOC]. This has led to a sharp increase in load factors and spot rates on the Asia-Europe route. Analysts predict a possible 100–200% increase in rates if the conflict becomes protracted. 

    26.03.2026_Slide2EN.png

Ocean freight: high volatility in the market will most likely translate into rate increses for shippers and a further deterioration of service

Current Situation and Near-Term Outlook: Market volatility is rising amid the conflict in the Middle East. Carriers are aiming to increase rates.

  • Demand for Asia-Europe sea freight is recovering, but growth rates are modest. European importers are in no hurry to replenish inventories, which is restraining the growth of shipments from China.

  • In recent weeks, the operational situation has deteriorated both in key Asian transit hubs and at Northern European terminals [Flexport]. Asian transit hubs (Singapore, Tanjung Pelepas) are operating with terminal utilization at 80-85% and above, with berthing delays and an accumulation of backlogged cargo being observed. In Northern Europe, high terminal utilization and extended import container dwell times are also evident.

  • WCI Shanghai-Rotterdam, as of 19.03.2026, rose to $2 478/FEU (17% MoM, 1% YoY) [Drewry]. WCI Shanghai-Genoa fell to $3 108/FEU. According to Linerlytica, load factors on key routes are currently insufficient to support significant rate increases. Carriers continue to assess the market and persist in their efforts to establish new price thresholds. For instance, CMA CGM introduced a FAK rate of $4 000/FEU effective March 15 until further notice, while MSC set a rate of $4 700/FEU effective March 22 until further notice, but...


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