Eurasian logistics market update.

China-Europe logistics market

Demand 

• In August, the Eurozone manufacturing PMI rose to 52.8* (+0,9 pp MoM), reaching its highest level in four years [S&P Global]. The main driver was the German economy, where output increased at the fastest pace since January 2022. Growth in export orders was recorded for the first time in several years. Additional impetus is being provided by demand for AI equipment. This is creating more favorable conditions for China—Europe trade.

• In January—July, the volume of China—Europe—China rail container transportation increased by 29% YoY. A significant contribution to growth came from the Central Eurasian Corridor (+26% YoY). A sharp increase in volumes on the Middle Corridor was also recorded in July (+168% YoY and +151% MoM), driven by higher shipments to Azerbaijan, Georgia, and Turkey. According to Chinese forwarders, delays persist on the Caspian Sea section of the Middle Corridor: due to weather conditions and increased volumes at Aktau, vessel processing has slowed, with waiting times exceeding 20 days.

• The seasonal impulse is fading, but demand on the Asia—Europe trade lane remains high. Weak recovery in European retail demand reduces the likelihood of a new surge in orders before the end of 3Q2026 [Flexport].

Rates  

• The average cost of China—Europe rail freight in September is ~$10 600/FEU (COC). Against the backdrop of a container equipment shortage, leasing rates continued to rise across almost all routes (up approximately 15% for inland hubs; container leasing costs ~$1500-1700 on China—Germany routes). At the same time, rail freight rates also increased on several key European stations. The increase averaged $100, with the rise being more pronounced for shipments from inland Chinese provinces.

• Ocean freight rates are declining more slowly than expected. WCI Shanghai—Rotterdam, as of August 20, 2026, stood at $4 401/FEU (-9% MoM, 48% YoY) [Drewry]. In the coming weeks, rates are likely to continue their gradual decline, driven by the fading of the seasonal impulse on the Asia—Europe trade lane. Carriers are striving to maintain current rate levels. According to GeekYum, average quoted rates on the China—Northern Europe route for the first half of September are ~$4 400/FEU. The average transit time is 42 days, with a minimum of 35 days.

• Futures trader expectations have shifted upward over the past two weeks. While a decline to ~$2 000/FEU by the end of October had previously been forecast, the new expectation is ~$2 400/FEU.

Other trends 

• Rail delivery times from China to Poland remain at one of the best levels since the beginning of the year. At the same time, train processing at Małaszewicze has accelerated. However, restrictions on river and rail transport persist in western Germany. The shallowing of the Rhine is complicating cargo evacuation from ports and transport to inland European regions.

• Chongqing plans to strengthen its role as a key transit hub on the ASEAN—China—Europe route. As part of the new current five-year plan, it is intended to more closely link China—Europe rail services with the «Western Land-Sea Corridor», ensuring seamless cargo transport from ASEAN countries via Chongqing to Europe. Targets include a 20% reduction in logistics costs and a 50% reduction in customs clearance time [Chongqing Municipal Government].

• On August 15, a regular seasonal container service between China and Europe via the Northern Sea Route was launched [China Daily]. The route includes calls at Felixstowe, Rotterdam, Hamburg, and Gdynia. The stated transit time from Ningbo to Felixstowe is ~20 days. At least 8 voyages are planned for 2026. The service is focused on high-margin cargo: electric vehicles, lithium batteries, solar panels, equipment, and e-commerce goods. On August 22, South Korean carrier PanStar Line launched a pilot container voyage via the NSR from Busan to Europe, with calls at Felixstowe, Rotterdam, Gdańsk, and Hamburg.

• Uzbekistan and Azerbaijan have agreed to accelerate the development of transportation along the Middle Corridor. Following talks on August 23-24, the parties stated the need toexpedite the creation of a joint fleet on the Caspian Sea and are considering the formation of a separate Uzbek-Azerbaijani transport corridor with a single operator.