Last week, the Rossiya Segodnya media group hosted a roundtable titled “The New Trade Axis: Today’s Key Logistics Routes.” Russian and international experts gathered to discuss how international transport corridors are taking shape and operating in the new geopolitical environment.
Transport corridors have evolved from pieces of infrastructure into instruments of grand strategy, said Kazbek Maygeldinov, chairman of the China Researchers Association Foundation (Kazakhstan). He pointed out that Kazakhstan is the only country in Central Asia to have adopted a transport and logistics infrastructure development strategy through 2030.
Eyes on the Middle
At the heart of that strategy is the development of the Trans-Caspian International Transport Route (TITR), also known as the Middle Corridor. Along this route, cargo from China crosses Kazakhstan, then the Caspian Sea into Azerbaijan, and continues through Georgia and Turkey into Europe.
According to a report released last year, freight volumes along the TITR grew fivefold between 2021 and 2025, from 840,000 to 4.12 million tons. At the same time, Kazbek Maygeldinov acknowledged, the China–Europe–China transit route through Russia “retains an overwhelming advantage across every metric,” from the maturity of its infrastructure to the ease of delivery without multiple cargo transshipments. Even so, he urged participants not to view the TITR as a direct competitor to the Russian route, describing it instead as a complementary corridor.
At present, Kazbek Maygeldinov said, the TITR stands at a turning point. The investment required to develop it is estimated by the EBRD at 19 billion euros. On one hand, its growth is being driven by powerful geopolitical momentum and by China’s push to diversify its routes. On the other, the corridor remains structurally vulnerable: its capacity is 20 to 30 times below that of the northern route, while its operating costs are higher. The shallowing of the Caspian Sea adds yet another layer of risk.
“Some forecasts suggest that with the necessary investment and structural reforms, the Middle Corridor could triple its freight volume to 11 million tons and cut transit times in half by 2030. I think we need to see this route as a third element in the emerging multi-corridor architecture across Eurasia,” Kazbek Maygeldinov concluded.
Corridors as Tools of Influence
The “new trade axis” has yet to take shape, and no revolutionary shift in logistics has occurred, argued Sergey Lukonin, head of the China Economy and Politics Section at the Center for Asia-Pacific Studies of IMEMO RAS. The bulk of trade between Pacific Asia and Europe still travels by sea, he said, and there is simply no way to shift that volume onto an overland corridor, because shipping by sea will always be cheaper than by rail.
At the same time, the expert noted, shifts are emerging in global logistics that are still in their early stages but are being accelerated by recent geopolitical change. One such shift, he said, is the growing importance of inland transport corridors.
“China is watching the development of transport corridors closely and is putting serious money behind them. But it’s important to understand that for China, transport corridors are not about logistics alone. To some extent, they are programs designed to support the outward expansion of Chinese business,” Sergey Lukonin said. China, in his view, has reached a stage of development where it can no longer grow within its own borders, and transport corridors serve as tools for opening up new markets, including across Central Asia.
Wang Yiwei, director of the Center for European Studies at Renmin University of China, offered his own perspective. The key condition for transport corridors to function, he said, is security. For corridors to operate over the long term and on a stable basis, the parties also need to act on the principle of mutual benefit. “That’s precisely why Russia and China cooperate not only at the central-government level, but also at the regional level. It rests on the complementarity of our two economies,” Wang explained.
According to Wang, there is also a need to rebuild the payment system from the ground up and move away from the influence of the U.S. dollar. “When it comes to relations between China, Russia, and Central Asia in this area, we have to recognize that we have the resources we need, we have the Chinese yuan, and we have other currencies. What we really need is a new bank to handle these settlements,” he said.
Mutual Interest
International transport corridors are a subject on everyone’s lips, said Natalya Zadonskaya, Deputy Head of the International Projects and Digitalization Department at the International Transport Corridors Directorate. They represent more than just transportation, she added—they are political engagement between countries, giving rise to what she called transport diplomacy.
As one example, she cited the joint efforts of Russia, Iran, Kazakhstan, Turkmenistan, and Azerbaijan to develop the International North–South Transport Corridor. “All the countries supported Russia’s initiative and put real effort into agreeing tariffs on the rail leg of the eastern branch between Kazakhstan, Turkmenistan, Iran, and the Russian Federation. On the western branch, Azerbaijan responded very actively—they’re overhauling their rail infrastructure. Despite the geopolitical environment, every country is doing its best to stick to the agreed plans,” Natalya Zadonskaya said.
Work on digitalizing shipments, for example, is well underway. Russia and Azerbaijan have agreed on the mutual recognition of digital signatures, and similar work has begun with Iran. “We were making good progress. Unfortunately, the current hostilities have made it impossible for us to push the work forward, because even testing IP addresses and data transfer is now restricted. That said, we know very well that the Iranian side is ready to resume this work at any moment and has no intention of letting it stall, which we find very encouraging,” Natalya Zadonskaya said.
Dmitry Koptev
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