The Trans-Afghan Project Takes On Concrete Shape

Construction of the Trans-Afghan Railway could begin as early as the second half of 2027, according to Jasurbek Choriev, Deputy Minister of Transport of Uzbekistan. First, though, peace must be secured between Afghanistan and Pakistan, one expert cautions.

The feasibility study for the Trans-Afghan Railway will be ready by the end of this year, Choriev says; Uzbek and Russian specialists are drawing it up. The agreement to launch the project’s practical phase—between the transport ministries of Russia and Uzbekistan, along with Russian Railways (RZD) and Uzbekistan Railways (O’zbekiston Temir Yo’llari)—was signed on 8 April 2025. In July 2025, Uzbekistan, Afghanistan, and Pakistan concluded an agreement to build the line.
The planned trunk line would not only give Afghanistan an outlet to Pakistan and its ports on the Arabian Sea; it would also become the shortest route to the sea lanes for the countries of Central Asia. The Trans-Afghan Railway is likewise seen as part of the planned BRKUAP transport corridor (Belarus–Russia–Kazakhstan–Uzbekistan–Afghanistan–Pakistan).

Judging by open sources, the route has been chosen for the shortest distance—Termez–Mazar-i-Sharif–Kabul–Peshawar (649 km). Construction is estimated at $7 billion, well above the initial $4.8 billion. The average cost per kilometer is put at $4 million on the plains and $10 million in the mountains. According to Choriev, foreign investors from the UAE, Qatar, and Kazakhstan are showing interest.

Longer options had been weighed earlier: Mazar-i-Sharif–Herat–Delaram–Kandahar–Chaman and Termez–Naibabad–Logar–Kharlachi. Costlier though they were, they could also deliver a greater economic payoff by bringing the railway into the country’s remote regions.

It is hard to say how realistic or final the figure is, since Uzbek, Afghan, and Pakistani transport officials are in no rush to share data, says Grigory Mikhailov, editor-in-chief of the Logistan portal. “Going by past experience with large, multi-billion-dollar projects of this kind, in perhaps 70% of cases they either take longer than planned, cost more than first expected, or both,” the expert notes.

On the whole, Mikhailov considers the project worthwhile—not least as a way of opening up a southern outlet for Central Asia. For Uzbekistan itself, though, he is convinced it is no priority.
“The country first needs to improve its own internal transport connectivity and build out logistics infrastructure—container terminals, warehouses, a cold chain, and the rest. That, I think, would cost rather less and deliver far more than the Trans-Afghan project,” the analyst explains.

Two things, moreover, stand in the way under current conditions. The first: the source of financing is unknown. For now we hear only statements of intent, but exactly who will fund the project, and on what terms, remains unclear, Mikhailov notes.

The second is the international climate. The Trans-Afghan line is ultimately meant to link Uzbekistan, Afghanistan, and Pakistan. “It’s hard to build a railway while Afghanistan and Pakistan are trading bomb and missile strikes. First you sort out the border and the working relationship, and only then do you build anything,” Mikhailov says.
 
 Dmitry Koptev